• June 25, 2021

Americans are concerned about crime, but that doesn’t mean they’re blaming the Democrats

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly survey summary.

Increased rates of homicide, aggravated assault and car theft they have increased concern about crime among the American public. According to the survey YouGov / The EconomistThe proportion of Americans who say that crime is the most important problem facing the United States has increased since President Biden took office, more than any other problem except national security. Related, May 22-25 Fox News Poll found that 73 percent of registered voters thought there were more crimes across the country than the previous year. Only 17 percent thought there was less crime and 7 percent thought the crime level had stayed about the same.

Fewer, but still most, believed that crime was also increasing in their local area: 54 percent, compared to 28 percent who thought there was less crime in their area and 15 percent who thought it was more or less the same. (It’s worth noting, however, that Americans perpetually believe that crime is on the rise, even when it isn’t.)

TO Gallup poll Earlier this year it was also found that only 27 percent of Americans were satisfied with the nation’s policies to reduce or control crime, and that 65 percent were dissatisfied. That’s a big change from 2020, when 47 percent were satisfied and 49 percent were dissatisfied.

In total, this has sparked a narrative that the rise in violent crime poses a political problem for Democrats, who are the ruling party and also traditionally perceived as softer on crime. But at this point, it’s not really clear whether the crime issue will hurt Democrats and anti-police progressives politically. To begin with, Americans are quite divided on what is the best solution to stop crime. in a YouGov / Yahoo News Poll From May 24 to 26, 32 percent of adults said law enforcement is not harsh enough on most criminals, but about the same number, 27 percent, said law enforcement law is also tough on most offenders. (Eighteen percent thought the law enforcement toughness level was correct, while 22 percent were unsure.)

Why Democrats Are Attempting Electoral Reform Even When They Don’t Have The Votes

The public is also very divided on whether Democrats or Republicans are better on crime. When asked whether Biden or former President Donald Trump had done a better job handling crime, 34 percent of those surveyed in the YouGov / Yahoo poll said Trump, while 32 percent said Biden. (Fifteen percent thought they were both equally good at crime.) Of course, this only reflects people’s existing partisan preferences – a majority of Republicans preferred Trump’s handling, while a majority of Democrats preferred Biden’s, but that only reinforces the theory that crime is not not. a problem that is changing anyone’s mind.

Similarly, in the elections so far in 2021, it also doesn’t appear that crime is propelling voters toward more conservative candidates. True, this week’s Democratic primary for mayor of New York City focused heavily on crime, and the winner was probably Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, arguably the most pro-cop candidate of the race. But there are many counterexamples: In the Democratic primary for the Philadelphia district attorney, incumbent Larry Krasner, the George Washington of the progressive criminal justice movement – comfortably defeated a moderate who tried linking Krasner’s policies to Philadelphia’s rising crime rate. And in this month’s special election for New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District, the Republican candidate led what was practically a single-issue campaign on crime and police issues; Democrat Melanie Stansbury ended up winning by 25 percentage points, beating the district’s D + 18 partisan lean.

Crime may emerge as a wedge problem in the 2022 midterm elections. But so far, there is little evidence that it is helping one party over the other.

Other voting bites

  • As Arizona Republicans are wrapping up their inquisition on the ballots cast in the 2020 election, Monmouth University found that 57 percent of adults believe these so-called audits are “partisan efforts to undermine valid election results.” Only 33 percent identified them as “legitimate efforts to identify possible voting irregularities.”
  • The “critical theory of race”, a school of thought that analyzes how racism invades institutions, recently become a republican bogeymanBut at this point, he hasn’t gained much traction among Democrats. According to a Morning Consult / Politico Survey, 30 percent of Republican voters have heard a lot about the theory, while only 21 percent of Democratic voters have. And when asked to explain what critical race theory is in their own words, Democrats (47 percent) used neutral terms to describe it as a “history of racism in America” ​​or “a civil rights movement.” , while a supermajority of Republicans (78 percent) used negatives as “a sham” or “a Marxist proposal.”
  • This week, the Supreme Court unanimously affirmed a ruling that the NCAA cannot limit the compensation of student athletes. In a flash poll conducted Tuesday, YouGov found that American adults overwhelmingly supported the decision, between 64 and 16 percent.
  • This year, lawmakers from more than 20 states They have introduced bills that would prohibit transgender student athletes from playing on the team of the gender with which they identify. A new YouGov / CBS News Poll found that adults believed, between 60 and 40 percent, that transgender student athletes should play on their assigned sex team at birth. However, respondents who knew a transgender person personally believed that they should play on the team that matches their gender identity, 55 to 45 percent.
  • You know how logically you know you should eat more veggies, but you never seem to measure up? We find the political equivalent. According to YouGov, 73 percent of adults thought it was “very important” to vote in local elections. But in reality, not nearly 73 percent of eligible voters vote in local elections; for example, in this week’s primaries for mayor of New York City, only 18-20 percent of citizens of voting age cast their votes. Heck, 73 percent of eligible voters don’t even vote in presidential elections; according to political scientist Michael McDonald, only 67 percent of eligible voters voted in the 2020 general election.

Biden approval

According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 52.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 42.2 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of +10.5 points ). At this time last week, 51.9 percent approved and 42.0 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of +9.9 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 54.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 40.3 percent, for a net approval rating of +14.0 points.

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