Someone passed me a report by a Democratic Party advisory group called Future Majority. The report covers surveys conducted by Future Majority in 37 Congressional Transitional Districts, along with additional surveys in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Arizona, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Along with the poll results, it includes extensive recommendations for the Democratic Party. Voting took place mainly between May 10 and May 14. The report is included below.
For the most part, the results are bad for Democrats and good for America. The report is titled “President Biden’s Honeymoon Is Over.” This graphic shows why. Click to enlarge:
Another headline is “Majority of Voters Don’t Trust Democrats Before Republicans.” And a large number of Americans do not buy the Democrats’ guarantee that the 2020 elections were totally frank, there is nothing to see here, it is time to move on. Check the numbers in West Virginia:
The answers to this question indicate that the realignment of the parties is quite complete: “For each of the following professions, do you think that the people who work in those positions support the Democratic or Republican candidates?” Voters think college professors and tech workers support Democrats, while janitors, mechanics, auto repairers, and (most of all) small business owners vote Republicans. If there is one category in which the public is wrong, it is the bankers, although this probably depends on whether it is Main Street or Wall Street. But notice how firmly Democrats are convinced that bankers vote Republicans:
Similarly, in Arizona, Michigan, and West Virginia, voters are more likely to say that Republicans, rather than Democrats, represent working-class Americans. In New Hampshire the games were tied.
The survey news is certainly not all good. There is a lot of support for taxing the “rich,” and apparently quite a few people who think Democrats spend too much money are appeased if they call it an investment. (“Our latest survey of voter attitudes reveals that voters, especially independents, believe that Democrats overspend. We recommend shifting the message from talking from ‘spending’ to ‘investing'”).
One thing this survey and report did not address at all is critical race theory. In fact, neither race nor crime has significant figures. TrafalgarOn the other hand, he sees Critical Theory of Race as the key winning issue for Republicans in 2022:
In the 2022 midterm elections, Cahaly cautiously predicts that at this point, “it looks like the Republicans will take back the House.”
As for what the key debates will be in the future, Cahaly points to the rapid rise of Critical Race Theory as a national issue. “Education issues are massive electoral issues across the country,” he said. “Critical race theory is an important electoral issue. What we are finding is that average Americans care about what their children are taught. If you look at the riots we had last summer, the older generation was more upset that the violence did not bother their children. Many of these young men had been taught crazy things. “
In the Virginia gubernatorial race, Trafalgar Group is conducting a poll for Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin. The issue of critical race theory has exploded across the state as Loudoun County parents have organized to fight the school board’s indoctrination efforts. “Loudoun County could very well be a campaign ad that helps Glenn Youngkin every day,” Cahaly said.
Cahaly clearly believes Youngkin is raising the CRT issue in the polls. All eyes will be on Virginia to see if that trend continues into the fall, and if a rank-and-file rebellion in the Commonwealth could herald a political earthquake next year.
I don’t know if it will turn into an earthquake, but I have no doubt that critical race theory is a winning issue for Republicans.