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Philippe J. Fournier: The latest model from 338Canada suggests that it will be a challenge for the liberals to get the majority, and it is unlikely that it will be easier

Who is in the mood for a general election in Canada this fall?

Not many of us, according to a recent Nanos Research survey published by CTV News. The results of this poll indicate that only 26 percent of Canadians “support the prospect of a federal election in the fall,” while 37 percent would be upset if the court order fell in the next few weeks. Regardless, the brief respite that was July 2021 has come and gone, and August promises to be much busier on the political front, with an election call expected soon, perhaps even in the next fortnight.

So why a choice, you ask? Although federal polls published last month have shown some divergence, they all agreed on which party leads in voting intentions. In June, Abacus Data, Ipsos and Mainstreet Research measured the Liberal Party (LPC) leading the Conservatives by double digits nationally, while Léger, Research Co. and Angus Reid showed a closer run, but still all gave a advantage to liberals. Most of the surveys were sent in July (see full list here) measured a somewhat closer race with liberal advantages ranging from 2 points (Mainstreet Research) to 7 points (EKOS). Only Innovative Research had the Liberals far ahead of the Conservative Party (CCP), that is, 41% of support for the LPC compared to 27% of the Conservatives.

Here are all the federal polls since January 2021. Looking at the big picture, we see a lot of statistical fluctuations, but very little net movement:

This week 338 Canada Federal Update It has the liberals leading the CCP by an average of 6 points, with the LPC sitting at 35 percent and the CCP at 29 percent. It is noteworthy that the NDP still holds strong in third place at 20 percent, despite the dire numbers in the province of Quebec:

It bears repeating that the numbers presented above represent averages, and the colored bars on the graph represent the confidence intervals of the projection, which follow a bell-shaped distribution. The graph below shows a comparison of this distribution with the latest federal surveys for the Liberals. Only Innovative Research is outside the current confidence intervals:

Here is the graph with results for Conservatives. Abacus Data is on the brink of distribution at 25 percent, but to be fair to Abacus, its last public poll was conducted in late June (others were conducted in July), so those figures may have changed since then. . We will see it in the coming days and weeks. Noteworthy: all polls show that the CPC is below its 2019 result of 34 percent.

As to NDP, a recent poll has the party near the 20 percent mark on average. In addition, all polling companies except Mainstreet measure NDP support higher than the 16% match result in 2019, but let’s also remember that most companies had overestimated support for the NDP in 2019 (by a two-point average), so NDP hopefuls shouldn’t count their chickens just yet.

Using data from the aforementioned surveys, 338 Canada Model has the Liberals winning an average of 163 seats, just six seats above their 2019 result and seven seats below the threshold for a majority in the House of Commons. While the Liberals clearly remain in the driver’s seat, currently available data indicates that the most likely scenario, if elections had been held this week, would be a minority government led by the LPC in Ottawa.

With the Québécois Bloc still holding firm in Quebec and the NDP near the 20 percent mark, Liberals would have to benefit from a collapsed CPC vote in Ontario (data not shown) or an incredibly efficient LPC vote – that is, get your vote. in all the right places and winning the most districts thrown.

Among the simulations performed by the 338Canada model, 54 percent of the simulations result in a liberal minority, 41 percent in a liberal majority, and 5 percent in a very thin CCP minority.

Naturally, the national figures don’t tell the whole story. While the CPC is currently down 5 points on average compared to its 2019 national result (34 percent), this loss of support appears to be primarily concentrated in Western Canada, especially Alberta, where the CPC outperformed its rivals in 2019 and thus could afford to lose some support without losing many (if any) seats. Current levels of support for conservatives in both Quebec Y Ontario they have not increased much compared to 2019, which explains why the CPC is still projected to win between 100 and 120 seats and therefore a majority victory for the LPC will depend mainly on the collapse of the Bloc or the NDP.

Secondly, The Latest Federal Mainstreet Research Issues Ontario showed LPC and CPC side by side in the province, while other companies measured LPC benefits ranging from 6 to 12 points. Mere subsample fluctuation or a new trend? If we see an increasingly tight race between the two parties in Ontario (and with the NDP still voting at 20 percent or more), no fewer than 25 to 35 seats could come into play, enough to turn this projection around.

So why a choice? The latest polls contain at least part of the answer: because Liberals could potentially win a majority and may not have another window to do so for the foreseeable future, although reaching the 170-seat threshold can still be a big challenge based on the data. . However, if not this fall, when exactly could Liberals expect a better window for their third consecutive term? Next spring, after a second consecutive budget with a deficit of hundreds of billions? Unlikely.

Some have cited the cases of prime ministers whose bets on the snap election backfired: David Peterson, Jim Prentice and Pauline Marois come to mind. Yet John Horgan in British Columbia and Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick were leading minority governments when the COVID-19 pandemic hit our shores, and both came out with majority terms last year. Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador also went from a minority to a majority last winter.

So which of these results will best reflect the upcoming federal campaign? We will see very soon.

Yes there is a choice, that is.

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Follow, continue 338Canada on Twitter here. Details of this projection are available in the 338 Canada Page. To find your home district, use this list of the 338 electoral districts, or use the regional links below: