• August 3, 2021

The COVID model reflects a grim reality for which leaders must prepare

There’s no escaping the math: Australia’s envisioned path out of the pandemic means tens of thousands of COVID cases a day. Is anyone ready for that, including politicians?

(Image: AAP / Mick Tsikas)

Pandemic modelers offer no plausible scenario that does not imply Australia continues to endure lockdowns and mandatory use of masks and social distancing well into 2022, or tens of thousands of COVID cases a day, and at the very least twice that. . digit deaths every day.

Which of these scenarios is more politically acceptable?

With the latest iteration of the national pandemic plan promising to reopen once 70% of the eligible population is vaccinated, most models suggest that you will see a large number of cases, albeit with a significant decrease in deaths and hospitalizations due to vaccination. Even in the best of cases there are up to 10,000 new cases per day and 20 deaths.

Read more about what Australia’s path will be like out of the confinement …

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