NY-GOV Still Likely Democrat in Viewerships: Sabato’s Crystal Ball
One of the most common questions we had around this time last year was whether there was any way that then-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would be replaced as a nominee by … Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic governor of New York for three periods. York, who had become a ubiquitous figure in the nation’s fight against COVID-19.
A year later, Cuomo resigns after several credible allegations that he sexually harassed state employees. Her resignation will be effective in two weeks, and Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul (D) will take office and become the first female governor of New York.
Cuomo’s resignation comes several days after state attorney general Tish James (D) released the results of an investigation that concluded Cuomo “engaged in conduct that constitutes sexual harassment under New York State and federal law.” Cuomo had lost the support of the nation’s top Democrats: President Biden called for his resignation after the report was released, as did many others. The Democratic-controlled state legislature was prepared to impeach and impeach Cuomo if he did not resign.
From a political point of view, Cuomo’s departure could make it easier for Democrats to defend the New York governorate, which they have won in four consecutive elections. Eliot Spitzer (D) won office following the retirement of Governor George Pataki (R) in 2006. Later, Spitzer resigned over a prostitution scandal, leading to the short-term governorship of David Paterson (D), the first governor of New York. Black governor. Cuomo then won office as a free seat in 2010 and won re-election in 2014 and 2018. Hochul, who is from Western New York, entered the national political consciousness with a surprising victory in a special House of Representatives election from 2011 in the United States, necessitated by the resignation of another male Empire State politician who misbehaved, former Representative Christopher Lee (R, NY-26). Hochul lost a close contest in 2012, to a Republican, Chris Collins, who was later convicted of insider trading and pardoned by then-President Trump, in a reconfigured, more Republican version of the district. Two years later, Hochul won an open-seat primary for lieutenant governor with Cuomo’s endorsement (in New York, the candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run in separate primaries and then come together on a ballot for the general election).
Although Hochul has been at No. 2 for several years, it will probably be difficult to link her to Cuomo’s misdeeds. That said, and assuming Hochul runs for governor next year, he may not be strong enough to prevent other notable Democrats from running in next year’s Democratic primary – James is a possibility, and there may be. many other contenders. Outgoing Mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio (D) I did not rule out a run for governor several days ago, although it has become so unpopular that we doubt he has much of a chance even if he does run. New York City public defender Jumaane Williams, who lost by a respectable seven-point margin to Hochul in the Democratic primary for governor in 2018, is another potential candidate, as is State Senator Alessandra Biaggi (D).
Representative Lee Zeldin (R, NY-1) has emerged as the most likely Republican nominee, but his chances of being the next governor have taken a hit now that the damaged Cuomo is apparently going to be out of the picture. Republicans have had a string of notable successes in the otherwise Democratic Northeast Corridor in recent years, scoring impressive victories in Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont. But Zeldin is not as moderate as the region’s Blue State Republicans.
We’ve rated New York’s gubernatorial race as Probably Democratic, and we’ll keep it there for now while we watch the field unfold. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo’s downfall is a reminder of the old Latin phrase that some will remember from the movie. Patton: “All glory is fleeting”. The now disgraced outgoing governor who replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee was always a pipe dream last year, which ended up being a blessing in disguise for those who adored Cuomo.