338 Canada: Liberals stumble out in first week
Philippe J. Fournier: After a week, our projection shows that the race tightens, support for the PND grows, and the odds of a liberal majority are narrowing.
The first of this five-week campaign has come and gone. Although many observers have described the past seven days as rather disappointing, there were a plethora of federal polls for data buffs to enjoy, analyze, and deconstruct. So let’s start with a short summary of the week he was in the federal polls:
- Leger, Ipsos, and Abacus facts all measured the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by a five-point margin, and the NDP at or above the 20 percent mark. Although the regional breakdown varies from poll to poll (which is fully expected), the overall figures would suggest that liberals remain in the driver’s seat and are heading towards a stronger minority or a very thin majority.
- the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) also ranked Trudeau’s Liberals ahead of the pack with a six-point lead nationally over the Conservatives. ARI also places liberals ahead by double digits over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec and over conservatives in Ontario. These numbers would strongly suggest that the LPC could reach majority territory.
- In the meantime, Mainstreet Research and EKOS Research Associates Both began their daily polls and, interestingly, both have detected a significant tightening of the race between the main parties. The first EKOS figures mostly coincided with those of other firms, with the Liberals 5 points ahead of the Conservatives, but the week ended with a statistical tie between the two parties. Mainstreet saw the same general trends and even showed a 33-33 percent tie on Friday. As a data nerd, I love following continuous polls, as they give you fresh data to see every day, but those daily fluctuations, while completely normal in the stats, can be like watching hot dogs being made for him. general public. We must be careful not to get carried away by the small daily ups and downs (and that, of course, is also true for screenings!). Also, as of this morning, Mainstreet had the LPC back in the lead by a 3-point margin.
- Nano Research it also began its ongoing poll this weekend and has the Liberals ahead by two points over the Conservatives (essentially a statistical tie). However, the Nanos regionals still give a notable advantage to the Liberals (regional data are paywalled here).
- Finally, Public Affairs Advisor he measured the race as a tie between the Liberals (30 percent) and the Conservatives (29 percent), with the NDP creeping up on 22 percent. The biggest contrast between Counsel and other firms is their Quebec numbers, where Counsel has the BQ and the Liberal with only one point difference.
The updated projection of the 338Canada has the Liberal Party to an average of 34 percent nationally. However, as you can see from the graph below, there is a noticeable difference between the places where pollsters have measured LPC support. However, all the surveys fit within a 34% ± 4% interval:
the Conservatives sit at an average of 30 percent, with polls ranging from 26 to 33 percent:
As to NDP, is still hovering around the 20 percent mark, with polls ranging between 18 and 22 percent.
Here are the 338Canada vote projections for all major parties. Note that the confidence intervals (the colored bars) of the LPC and CPC now overlap significantly, which means that while liberals still hold the lead in the aggregate, conservatives are now in range, which is not was the case a month ago:
Breaking down these numbers by region and demographic, the 338Canada model has the Liberals averaging 156 seats, essentially where the LPC disbanded. The Conservatives have an average of 117 seats, just shy of their 2019 result.
The only party currently projected to make significant gains is the NDP, averaging 36 seats (compared to 24 seats in 2019). This tightening of the race, combined with increased support for the NDP, has significantly lowered the odds of a liberal majority in the past week. As of this writing, the most likely scenario would be, once again, a liberal-led minority in the House of Commons:
“The sooner you fall behind, the more time you have to catch up,” is something I jokingly say to my students in the first week of a semester, and it’s obviously terrible advice. How could you explain why the Liberals came out so flat in the first week? A liberal optimist would say they may be saving their best game for when more Canadians return from vacation and begin to follow the campaign more closely. While it is generally true that it is better to finish strong than start strong, sometimes (often?) The first few weeks of a campaign can set the tone for what follows. The importance of momentum should never be underestimated (or at least perceived momentum) in politics, especially during this short campaign. Ask the Liberals of Nova Scotia.
There is little doubt from the numbers released this week that the LPC stumbled on the door. Perhaps the good news for Justin Trudeau is that he still has four weeks to catch up.
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