338 Canada: Liberals Stop Bleeding, At Least
Philippe J. Fournier: The latest electoral projection shows that the two main parties are stagnant, although the Conservatives are still the favorites to win the most seats.
Three weeks of this five-week federal campaign are now behind us. While the first two weeks were marked by a gradual and steady decline in support for the Liberal Party (mainly to the benefit of the Conservatives), last week’s polls seem to indicate that national numbers appear to have stabilized. However, while liberals may have managed to stop the bleeding, they have yet to regain ground lost to the CCP since August 15, particularly in Ontario and British columbia. Furthermore, the dominance of the liberals over Atlantic provinces Since 2015 it seems to be eroding a bit, and several districts in this region that we initially thought were safe for the Liberal Party could potentially be at stake.
No less than eleven polling companies have posted updates in the last week (see the full list here). Based on the data from these surveys, here is the update 338 Canada’s National Vote Projection:
The Conservative Party of Canada (CCP) remains in the lead with an average support of 35 percent nationally. This is an average net gain of five points since the launch of this campaign. The CCP continues to dominate western Canada, is now statistically linked to the Liberal Party in Ontario, and appears to be on the rise in the Atlantic provinces.
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are averaging 31 percent, a 4-point drop since the start of the campaign. As we will see below, Liberals enjoy a more effective vote than Conservatives in the country due to their regional support, particularly in Quebec and Ontario. However, a Quebec-only Léger poll released just before TVA debate Last Thursday he indicated that liberal support in the province may be more fragile than two weeks ago, and that the conservatives may be gaining ground. We will be closely monitoring these numbers next week.
The NDP remains at the 20 percent mark nationally, roughly where the party was at the starting line in mid-August. As for Maxime Bernier’s Popular Party (PPC), it has tied (and perhaps surpassed) the Greens in the polls. Considering that the PPC will have candidates in 311 electoral districts against only 252 from the Green Party, it is quite plausible that the PPC will outperform the Greens in the popular vote in this election. We will keep our eyes on Beauce, where the PPC leader is trying to return to the House of Commons.
Using these vote projection numbers and their regional breakdown, we calculate the following national seat projections:
The Conservative Party has an average of 144 seats in the country, compared to 131 seats for the Liberal Party. Therefore, the CCP would be the favorite to win the most seats if the elections had taken place today. However, this average gap of 13 seats between the two parties is well below the confidence intervals of the projection, which means that the two parties remain stuck in a statistical tie.
We can visualize this significant overlap in settlement projections by plotting settlement probability density curves for the two parties. Each curve is a bell-shaped distribution centered on the average of each match:
For those who look at this graph and find those projections very uncertain, well, they would be correct. The race is close, the regional poll data is very noisy, and small variations in regional numbers can have a tremendous effect on the total seats for each party. Such are the joys of the former in the past in a multi-party system.
At the time of this writing, the most likely scenario is a plurality of CPCs. Obviously, we must emphasize that Erin O’Toole would not automatically become prime minister if his party won the majority of the seats but did not achieve the majority. In Canada, we elect parliaments, not prime ministers. If the final seat count were very close, you’d bet Justin Trudeau would likely try to secure the House’s trust before throwing in the towel and handing the reins over to the Conservatives.
The last two weeks of this campaign will be crucial for both Justin Trudeau and Erin O’Toole, especially considering that the two National Commission debates will take place this week (Wednesday, September 8 in French and Thursday, September 9 in English. ). Although majority rule of any color seems highly unlikely at this point in the race, the 338Canada currently counts. no less than 52 “thrown” constituencies in the country.
Anyone who tells you with conviction that they know exactly how these elections will play out may suffer from overconfidence, because the data currently available shows anything but clarity.
* * *
Details of this projection are available in the 338 Canada Page. To find your home district, use this list of the 338 electoral districts, or use the regional links below:
