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338 Canada: Liberals Stop Bleeding, At Least

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest electoral projection shows that the two main parties are stagnant, although the Conservatives are still the favorites to win the most seats. Three weeks of this five-week federal campaign are now behind us. While the first two weeks were marked by a gradual and steady decline in support for the…

2021 Federal Election: Polls show O’Toole the frontrunner. Voters don’t seem convinced.

Philippe J. Fournier: Conservatives are ahead, polls say. But they also tell us that many voters believe that Justin Trudeau will remain in power after the election. Last week, the three polling companies that have surveyed Canadians daily since the start of the campaign (viz. Nano Research, Mainstreet Research and EKOS) all measured a gradual…

2021 Federal Election: Wait, You’re Backing Who?

Election image of the day: With Jagmeet Singh watching, and cameras rolling, two prominent First Nations chiefs made it known that they would not back their candidate. Singh and Grand Chief Garrison Settee, left, of the Manitoba Keewatinowi Okimakanak, listen to Grand Chief Arlen Dumas, right, of the Manitoba Assembly of Chiefs, following a meeting…

338 Canada: Conservatives Rise, Liberals Slide

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338 projection shows Liberals dropping two seats a day since the campaign began. Conservatives are the new favorites. It was (another) tough week for Justin Trudeau’s liberals in public opinion polls. The trends we observed in the first week of this short campaign continued and even intensified in the second…

A talk about the 2021 elections with Shannon Proudfoot, Paul Wells, Justin Ling, Fatima Syed and Andrew MacDougall

Ottawa office manager Shannon Proudfoot will be joined by Paul Wells, Justin Ling, Andrew MacDougall and Fatima Syed at 12:30 pm ET on Friday, August 27 to a chat on Twitter Space at lunchtime about the 2021 election campaign so far. Be sure to Follow us on twitter and tune in if you’re curious what…

Liberals can’t afford voter apathy: 338

Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus poll points to growing pessimism with the government. It’s not a reassuring sign for Justin Trudeau and his team. Dissatisfaction with the federal government is on the rise, according to the most recent survey from Abacus Data, who was on the ground taking the pulse of Canadians when Justin…

Sorry, you cut there: Elections in the COVID era

What can a politician do when he can’t shake a hand, kiss a baby, or, as the Prime Minister apparently likes to do, balance an acrobatic child on his palms? The answer is the same unfortunate virtual reality that thousands of home-based workers have faced in the past 18 months: Zoom calls. The leaders are…

338 Canada: Trudeau’s Choice to Lose

Philippe J. Fournier: Most are within the reach of the liberals, but the current level of support from the NDP could still spoil their plans. After months of speculation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally decided to put his entire chip in the electoral pot, betting that his handling of the pandemic so far (because no,…

Seat group poll: Liberals consolidate their lead

Innovative Research Group analysis shows key regional advantages for liberals. They could explain why Trudeau thinks he can win the majority. Why is Justin Trudeau preparing to call an election when most pollsters say he is not in majority territory? Perhaps it is madness that will lead to the ruin of the Liberals. Perhaps the…

2021 Federal Elections: Meet Your Pollsters

This story was last updated on August 8, 2021 In his best-selling book Breaking the Quebec Code, Jean-Marc Léger wrote “Political polls represent about 1% of all my income, but they represent 99% of my problems”. So why do it then? For many market research firms, political polls serve as an efficient way to promote…