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338 Canada: Liberals Stop Bleeding, At Least

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest electoral projection shows that the two main parties are stagnant, although the Conservatives are still the favorites to win the most seats. Three weeks of this five-week federal campaign are now behind us. While the first two weeks were marked by a gradual and steady decline in support for the…

2021 Federal Election: Polls show O’Toole the frontrunner. Voters don’t seem convinced.

Philippe J. Fournier: Conservatives are ahead, polls say. But they also tell us that many voters believe that Justin Trudeau will remain in power after the election. Last week, the three polling companies that have surveyed Canadians daily since the start of the campaign (viz. Nano Research, Mainstreet Research and EKOS) all measured a gradual…

338 Canada: Conservatives Rise, Liberals Slide

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338 projection shows Liberals dropping two seats a day since the campaign began. Conservatives are the new favorites. It was (another) tough week for Justin Trudeau’s liberals in public opinion polls. The trends we observed in the first week of this short campaign continued and even intensified in the second…

338 Canada: Liberals stumble out in first week

Philippe J. Fournier: After a week, our projection shows that the race tightens, support for the PND grows, and the odds of a liberal majority are narrowing. The first of this five-week campaign has come and gone. Although many observers have described the past seven days as rather disappointing, there were a plethora of federal…

Just because it’s symbolic doesn’t mean it’s unimportant

In this post I write about two quite different things, linked by the issue of the importance of symbols. First, the Taliban fighters took the American army uniforms left behind in Joe Biden’s disorganized run from Afghanistan and used them to create a mocking image of Iwo Jima: Taliban unit uses US military equipment to…

Liberals can’t afford voter apathy: 338

Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus poll points to growing pessimism with the government. It’s not a reassuring sign for Justin Trudeau and his team. Dissatisfaction with the federal government is on the rise, according to the most recent survey from Abacus Data, who was on the ground taking the pulse of Canadians when Justin…

338 Canada: Trudeau’s Choice to Lose

Philippe J. Fournier: Most are within the reach of the liberals, but the current level of support from the NDP could still spoil their plans. After months of speculation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally decided to put his entire chip in the electoral pot, betting that his handling of the pandemic so far (because no,…

Seat group poll: Liberals consolidate their lead

Innovative Research Group analysis shows key regional advantages for liberals. They could explain why Trudeau thinks he can win the majority. Why is Justin Trudeau preparing to call an election when most pollsters say he is not in majority territory? Perhaps it is madness that will lead to the ruin of the Liberals. Perhaps the…

A fall choice? Liberals may not have a better window.

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest model from 338Canada suggests that it will be a challenge for the liberals to get the majority, and it is unlikely that it will be easier Who is in the mood for a general election in Canada this fall? Not many of us, according to a recent Nanos Research survey…

The love that does not dare to pronounce its name …

… It is the love that American liberals have for the communist dictatorship of Cuba. By any sensible calculation, Fidel Castro was a complete disgrace. And yet American liberals, as well as some Europeans, have never been able to let go. When asked at a press conference if Cubans are protesting and trying to get…