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338 Canada: Liberals stumble out in first week

Philippe J. Fournier: After a week, our projection shows that the race tightens, support for the PND grows, and the odds of a liberal majority are narrowing. The first of this five-week campaign has come and gone. Although many observers have described the past seven days as rather disappointing, there were a plethora of federal…

338 Canada: Trudeau’s Choice to Lose

Philippe J. Fournier: Most are within the reach of the liberals, but the current level of support from the NDP could still spoil their plans. After months of speculation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally decided to put his entire chip in the electoral pot, betting that his handling of the pandemic so far (because no,…

A fall choice? Liberals may not have a better window.

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest model from 338Canada suggests that it will be a challenge for the liberals to get the majority, and it is unlikely that it will be easier Who is in the mood for a general election in Canada this fall? Not many of us, according to a recent Nanos Research survey…

Canada, where vaccine acceptance is not political

Philippe J. Fournier: Unlike in the US, where enthusiasm for the vaccine shifts along partisan lines, a new poll shows Canadians of all stripes are widely supportive of the vaccine. Vaccination against COVID-19 continues to progress well across the country. At the time of this writing, nearly 60 percent of Canadians, and counting, have received…

Doug Ford’s PC Party receives a success: 338

Philippe J. Fournier: A new poll shows that recent events have come at a considerable cost in supporting the PC, putting the party just ahead of the Ontario NDP and the Liberals. After a tumultuous spring marked by a deadly third wave of the Ontario pandemic, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party has taken a substantial…

Avi Lewis: You mean this is not how you kill the NDP?

There’s something in the expert’s life that doesn’t mind a fight, so when I heard that Avi Lewis (kids: ask your parents!) Will be running for the NDP in the upcoming federal election, I called Anne McGrath. I suppose I could have called Avi Lewis, but (to) Campbell Clark in the Balloon I already did…

338 Canada: What’s Left of the Orange Wave in Quebec? Little bit.

Philippe J. Fournier: Ten years ago, the NDP won a remarkable 59 seats in Quebec. In our last electoral projection, the party runs the risk of losing its only seat in the province. Had friends for a drink and pizza. We had all written our predictions on a board and had even made some friendly…